What are my mineral rights and royalties worth?
Mineral and royalty value depends on ownership, current royalty income, well performance, commodity prices, development potential, lease terms, deductions, taxes, title, and what a buyer is willing to pay. The Wildcatters Mineral & Royalty Scenario Model lets you test how user supplied well, income, oil and natural gas price, decline, and hypothetical future drilling assumptions could affect royalty cash flow over time. Results describe those assumptions, not fair market value or guaranteed payments. It is a scenario tool, not an appraisal or valuation opinion.
Wildcatters · Mineral & Royalty Scenario Model
Illustrative model assumptions
Illustrative starting assumptions: acquisition $100,000; 20-year horizon; two existing wells aged 36 months with $1,500 total current monthly royalty. Oil scenario and reference price $70/bbl; natural gas scenario and reference price $3/MMBtu; assumed revenue allocation 70% oil / 30% natural gas. Annual decline by production age: 50%, 30%, 20%, 10%. No hypothetical future wells are included. These are editable examples, not market quotes, verified commodity attribution or future drilling assumptions.
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How are mineral rights valued?
Start with the interest actually owned: Net Mineral Acres, Net Revenue Interest and the distinction between a Royalty Interest and a Working Interest. Title, ownership documents and lease terms affect what can be transferred and which payments or obligations belong to the owner.
Current royalty income, existing wells, production decline, operator activity and commodity prices help frame an economic review. Deductions and taxes can change the amount retained. Permits and development activity may provide context, but a DUC, SPUD or Well Completion does not guarantee future drilling or income. A Production Reporting Entity may cover multiple wells, so reporting totals should not be attributed to one well without support.
Location and geology matter only to the extent supported by property-specific evidence. Buyer demand and negotiated terms also affect a transaction. There is no universal dollars-per-acre figure or royalty-income multiple that establishes value. Use the model to explore assumptions, then review the underlying documents and evidence.
What this calculator can and cannot tell you
It can model user supplied royalty cash flow assumptions, compare commodity scenarios, combine existing wells with explicitly hypothetical future wells, and show modeled cumulative cash flow and acquisition recovery.
It cannot determine fair market value, establish reserves, predict drilling, verify title, predict commodity prices, provide tax, legal or investment advice, or guarantee royalty payments. Acquisition recovery compares modeled receipts with the entered purchase price; it is not a valuation or a full-cost breakeven opinion.
Put the scenario in context
Use Wildcatters Learn for ownership and well-record explanations. If you explore opportunities in the Marketplace, treat asking prices and seller descriptions as transaction context, not proof of fair market value. The model's cash flow is one scenario to examine alongside those materials.
How this model works
01 / Start with your royalty payments
Existing monthly income is the user supplied total for each cohort, not income per well. Well count describes the cohort and does not multiply that payment. Future monthly income is per well. All income inputs are denominated in USD at the reference prices you specify.
Commodity mix is a user assumed allocation of starting royalty revenue to oil and natural gas, shared by all cohorts. It is not exact attribution unless your statement supports it. If the statement does not separate commodities, compare alternative mixes rather than infer a precise allocation. It is not a volume or acreage mix. Understand NMA, NRI and Royalty Interest before choosing an income assumption. This is not a Working Interest cost model.
02 / Adjust prices, then apply decline
Price multiplier = oil revenue share × scenario oil price ÷ reference oil price + gas revenue share × scenario gas price ÷ reference gas price. Prices stay constant over the horizon. The model assumes proportional revenue response, fixed mix and unchanged deductions; it does not model realized price differentials or hedges.
Each month pays the current modeled amount, then multiplies the next payment by (1 − annual decline)^(1/12). The rate is selected by production age: months 0–11, 12–23, 24–35, then 36 onward. Current age selects the next decline step; past decline is not reapplied to current income. This is an editable revenue scenario curve, not a reserve estimate or engineering type curve.
03 / Introduce hypothetical cohorts
No future wells are included by default. To include a hypothetical cohort, enter a positive monthly income per well, a positive well count and a start year within the horizon, then confirm inclusion. No positive future income is invented by the tool. Future cohorts begin in the first month of the chosen model year, with age zero. Initial payment = well count × initial monthly income per well × price multiplier. No payment is modeled before that year. Model years are consecutive 12-month periods, not calendar years.
A DUC, SPUD or Completion record does not guarantee future drilling or payments. A Production Reporting Entity may represent multiple wells. No regulator records feed this model automatically.
04 / Sum cash flow and compare acquisition
Annual cash flow sums 12 monthly payments. The chart can show annual cash flow or annual cash flow divided by 12 as an average monthly payment; that average is not an individual monthly payment schedule. Existing plus hypothetical cash flow equals the total chart series. Vertical guides mark hypothetical start years. Cumulative cash flow sums annual payments without discounting. Modeled acquisition recovery is the first year-end when cumulative cash flow equals or exceeds the acquisition price. A zero price is labeled “No acquisition to recover.” Recovery is not a full-cost breakeven calculation.
Lower and higher cases scale both scenario commodity prices by −20% and +20%, holding other inputs fixed. These are comparisons, not probabilities or expected outcomes. The model excludes additional deductions, taxes, transaction costs, financing, inflation, shut-ins, sale proceeds and terminal value. Cumulative cash flow is not profit or valuation.
Educational scenarios using user supplied assumptions. Actual production and royalty payments vary; future wells are hypothetical and commodity prices vary. Deductions, taxes, title, lease terms, NRI, division orders and operator reporting can materially affect payments. Not legal, tax, engineering, reserve, valuation or investment advice.